The Global Marriage Decline: Understanding South Africa’s Changing Relationship Landscape
Marriage, once considered a universal milestone in adult life, is undergoing a dramatic transformation worldwide. A comprehensive new study by family law attorney Bertus Preller reveals just how profound this shift has become, with South Africa serving as a compelling case study for understanding broader global trends that are reshaping how we form families and partnerships.
A Worldwide Phenomenon
The numbers tell a striking story. Across OECD countries, marriage rates have plummeted from typical rates of five to seven marriages per thousand people annually in the early 1990s to just three to five per thousand by 2022. This is not merely a Western phenomenon—developing regions across Asia, Africa, and Latin America are witnessing similar patterns, though each with their own unique characteristics.
In East Asia, the retreat from marriage is even more pronounced than in Western countries, creating what researchers term a “marriage strike” where young people increasingly opt for single living rather than cohabitation or marriage. Meanwhile, Latin America presents an interesting contrast where formal marriage decline has been completely offset by rising cohabitation rates, keeping overall union formation stable.
Africa shows perhaps the most complex picture. While marriage remains culturally significant across the continent, many countries are experiencing delays in marriage timing and declining formal registration rates, often driven by economic pressures and the prevalence of unregistered customary unions.
South Africa’s Dramatic Decline
South Africa exemplifies these global trends while presenting its own unique challenges. The country has witnessed a particularly steep decline in registered marriages over the past two decades. Annual civil marriage registrations peaked at approximately 186,000 in 2008 before beginning a steady descent to just 99,000 by 2023—a drop of nearly fifty percent despite a growing population.
This decline becomes even more striking when viewed through the lens of crude marriage rates. South Africa’s rate has fallen to approximately 1.7 marriages per thousand people, placing it among the lowest globally and well below both the world average of around five per thousand and the OECD average of 4.3 per thousand.
The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated these trends temporarily, with marriage registrations plunging in 2020 as lockdowns and gathering restrictions forced couples to postpone ceremonies. While there was a modest rebound in subsequent years, the overall downward trajectory has continued unabated.
The Complex Landscape of South African Unions
South Africa’s diverse legal framework for relationships adds layers of complexity to understanding marriage trends. The country recognises three main types of formal unions: civil marriages under the Marriage Act, customary marriages governed by traditional African law, and civil unions available to both same-sex and opposite-sex couples since 2006.
Civil marriages continue to dominate, accounting for approximately ninety-four percent of all registered unions in 2023. However, customary marriages present a particularly concerning picture. While legally recognised since 2000, their registration rates have remained abysmally low, with only 3,537 customary marriages officially recorded in 2023. More troubling is that Statistics South Africa reports that ninety percent of customary marriages registered in recent years were actually unions that occurred in previous years, indicating massive under-registration of these traditional ceremonies.
Civil unions, despite South Africa’s progressive constitutional framework that made it one of the first countries globally to legalize same-sex unions, have seen only modest uptake. Registrations peaked at 2,461 in 2022 but remain a tiny fraction of total unions, suggesting that this alternative legal form has not significantly bolstered overall union formation rates.
The Economics of Love and Commitment
Economic factors play a central role in South Africa’s declining marriage rates. The country’s persistently high unemployment, particularly among young adults, creates significant barriers to marriage formation. Traditional African customs requiring lobola or ilobolo payments can make marriage financially prohibitive for many couples, with some commentators noting that marriage has increasingly become a “middle-class luxury.”
This economic dimension creates a cruel paradox: both prosperity and poverty can lead to fewer marriages. Women’s increased economic independence reduces the financial necessity of marriage, while economic hardship makes it difficult for young adults, particularly men expected to provide financially, to establish the material foundation traditionally expected before marriage.
The rising median age at marriage reflects these economic realities. South African grooms now marry at an average age of thirty-seven to thirty-eight years, while brides marry at thirty-three to thirty-four years—both figures representing increases of three to four years over the past two decades. This delay reflects the time needed to achieve financial stability in an increasingly challenging economic environment.
Cultural Transformation and the Rise of Cohabitation
Beyond economics, fundamental cultural shifts are reshaping attitudes toward marriage and partnership. The stigma once attached to cohabitation has largely evaporated, particularly in urban areas, these arrangements are now widely viewed as normal relationship stages, akin to informal trial marriages.
This cultural liberalization reflects broader changes in gender roles and expectations. Traditional marriage often imposed inequitable divisions of labour and responsibility, and many modern women reject these constraints. As women achieve greater autonomy, marriage becomes a choice made on their own terms rather than a social or economic necessity.
Religious influence, while still significant in many communities, competes increasingly with individualistic values and practical realities. Even within traditionally conservative religious groups, younger generations show signs of converging toward more liberal attitudes about premarital cohabitation and the optional nature of formal marriage.
The decoupling of marriage from childbearing has further reduced pressure to marry. With approximately sixty-one percent of births in South Africa occurring to unmarried mothers, having children outside of marriage has lost much of its social stigma, removing another traditional incentive for formal union.
Legal Gaps and Protection Challenges
South Africa’s legal framework, while progressive in recognising diverse union types, contains significant gaps that leave many couples vulnerable. Unlike many jurisdictions, South Africa does not automatically recognize long-term cohabitation as conferring spousal rights—the concept of “common-law marriage” has no legal standing in the country.
This creates a growing population of couples living in what might be termed “legal limbo relationships”—unmarried partnerships of many years that lack the legal protections associated with marriage. Partners in such relationships, often women who have sacrificed careers for caregiving, find themselves without rights to property, inheritance, or maintenance if relationships end.
The under-registration of customary marriages compounds these problems. Many couples conduct traditional ceremonies but never formalise their unions legally, leaving participants, particularly women, without crucial legal protections. This represents not just a statistical concern but a serious social justice issue affecting vulnerable populations.
Gender Dynamics and the Marriage Squeeze
The transformation of gender relations both drives and reflects changing marriage patterns. South African census data reveals that by midlife, a higher percentage of men than women are married, partly because many women remain unmarried or divorced and choose not to remarry. This creates what researchers term a “marriage squeeze,” where educated or financially independent women face a shortage of suitable male partners.
As women become more educated and economically independent, traditional patterns of hypergamy—women marrying men of higher socioeconomic status—become less feasible. Many educated women prefer to remain single rather than “marry down,” while educated men may have fewer options among women with lower educational attainment.
These dynamics contribute to marriage becoming what researchers call a “capstone” rather than a “cornerstone”—a marker of having achieved stability rather than a first step into adulthood. This shift explains both the delay in marriage timing and the elaborate nature of weddings when they do occur, as couples view marriage as a milestone worth celebrating rather than a social obligation to fulfil.
International Comparisons and Future Trajectories
Comparing South Africa to other countries provides insight into potential future trends. Brazil, like much of Latin America, maintains family formation through high cohabitation rates despite low formal marriage rates. India continues to have near-universal marriage through strong social pressure and arranged marriage traditions, though even there, urban areas show signs of change.
Sweden represents an extreme on the spectrum, with one of the world’s lowest marriage rates and highest cohabitation prevalence, where marriage becomes almost purely symbolic. South Africa appears to be following a trajectory similar to Western Europe but approximately twenty to thirty years behind, suggesting further declines in marriage and continued normalisation of alternative family forms in coming decades.
Societal and Policy Implications
The decline in marriage carries wide-ranging consequences for South African society. The rise of single-parent households, particularly those headed by women, creates challenges for child support enforcement and paternal involvement. While the law requires fathers to pay child support regardless of marital status, maintenance courts are overwhelmed and many children receive inadequate support from unmarried fathers.
From a legal perspective, there is urgent need for policy reform to protect long-term cohabitants and women in unregistered customary marriages. Proposals for comprehensive domestic partnership legislation have been discussed, but implementation remains pending. Such reforms would need to balance protecting vulnerable partners while not undermining the institution of marriage itself.
Economic policy implications include adjusting tax policy, housing policy, and social security systems to accommodate changing household structures. If marriages continue declining, governments may need to provide stronger social safety nets for individuals who might previously have relied on spousal support.
The Positive Side of Change
Despite legitimate concerns about declining marriage rates, these trends also reflect positive social progress. Individuals enjoy greater freedom to choose if, when, and whom to marry. Marriages that do occur are arguably more likely to be based on genuine compatibility and mutual respect rather than economic necessity or social pressure.
The expansion of recognised union forms, including same-sex partnerships, represents progress in human rights and inclusivity. Some evidence suggests that divorce rates may be stabilising or even declining slightly, possibly because fewer incompatible marriages are being entered when marriage becomes optional rather than obligatory.
Looking Ahead: Adaptation and Reform
South Africa’s experience with declining marriage rates mirrors global trends while highlighting unique local challenges. The country’s diverse cultural and legal landscape provides both opportunities and complications for addressing these changes. Success will require nuanced policy responses that recognise the reality of changing family formation patterns while protecting vulnerable individuals.
The key insight from this research is that marriage in South Africa, as globally, has shifted from a social given to a deliberate choice—one that many are foregoing or significantly delaying. Understanding these trends allows stakeholders to better respond to changing family needs through legal reform, economic support, and cultural dialogue.
Whether through strengthening marriage as an institution or accommodating non-marital family forms, South Africa must navigate the delicate task of adapting to a world where marriage is no longer the default foundation of family life. The goal should be creating family-inclusive rather than marriage-exclusive policies that ensure all forms of families receive appropriate support and protection.
Conclusion: Embracing Change While Protecting Families
The research by Bertus Preller illuminates a fundamental transformation in how South Africans and people worldwide approach intimate relationships and family formation. While the decline in marriage rates raises legitimate concerns about legal protection and social support systems, it also reflects positive changes in personal freedom and gender equality.
The challenge for policymakers, legal practitioners, and society at large is to adapt institutional frameworks to support the full spectrum of family forms that are emerging. This means closing legal gaps that leave cohabiting partners vulnerable, improving maintenance enforcement for unmarried parents, and creating awareness about the implications of various relationship choices.
Most importantly, it requires recognising that the essence of family—love, commitment, and mutual support—can exist regardless of legal marital status. The goal should be supporting strong, stable relationships and protecting vulnerable family members, whether they choose marriage, cohabitation, or other partnership arrangements.
As South Africa continues evolving its approach to family law and social policy, the insights from this research provide crucial guidance for creating a more inclusive and protective framework for all families, married or not. The future belongs not to preserving marriage at all costs, but to ensuring that the benefits once exclusively conferred by marriage become accessible to all who need them, regardless of the legal form their relationships take.
Written by Bertus Preller, a Family Law and Divorce Law attorney and Mediator at Maurice Phillips Wisenberg in Cape Town and founder of DivorceOnline and iANC. A blog, managed by SplashLaw, for more information on Family Law read more here.
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